Using the experience curve model to project carbon dioxide emissions through 2040

Abstract

Projections of long-term carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the literature vary over a wide range depending on both socio-economic development and mitigation policy. Therefore, any attempt to improve the accuracy of such projections is important. We present a simple aggregate model to project the future carbon intensity of economic output, which is then used to forecast energy-related CO2 emissions through 2040 for seven countries and three regions of the world. Our projection results are compared to those from the International Energy Outlook 2013 report. We find that our projections are significantly higher than those reported in the International Energy Outlook 2013 report.