Comparative analysis of long-term road fatality targets for individual states in the US-An application of experience curve models

Abstract

Both the Federal government and individual state governments in the US establish long-term road fatality targets to plan and evaluate the effectiveness of their respective safety programs. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple fatality projection model to project future fatality rates and number of fatalities through 2020 and 2030 for individual states. And then, long-term fatality target value established by ten selected states will be compared to our projected values to assess realism of these targets. Based on the results of this study, several policy recommendations to accelerate reduction of road fatality are made. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.