거시 환경의 변화에 따른 국적별 외래 관광객 수요에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables on inbound tourism demand in Korea by using Johansen's co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model. The inbound tourists included Japanese, Chinese and American. The monthly time series data from Apr, 1994 to Nov, 2012 was obtained from the ECOS, ITSTAT and Korea Tourism Statistics. The model consisted such variables as total inbound tourists, Japanese, Chinese, and American inbound tourists, index of industrial product, real exchange rate and oil price. The results of this study show that the total Japanese, Chinese and American tourism demand for Korea are cointegrated with index of industrial product, real exchange rate and oil price in long term equilibrium. In addition, the result of VECM show that the total, Japanese and Chinese tourism demand for Korea except American were negatively influenced by real exchange rate of time T-1 in long term equilibrium. However, American tourism demand for Korea was positively influenced by the American tourism demand on time T-1 and time T-2 in long term equilibrium.