공모형 PF사업 문제 유형화를 통한 실물옵션 가치평가법의 적용에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to find problems of mixed-use development based on project financing competition and to test real options valuation as the means of lowering risks. Most of development projects involve many risks in assuming market situations but the traditional discounted cash flow method that cannot reflect future change is applied to valuing a development project. To compensate defaults of DCF method, real options method utilizes various options to correspond to changes of market situations. This paper can be summarized as follows. A content analysis for newspaper articles is executed to find problems of mixed-use development projects, and problems are divided into 11 types. Binomial option models, such as option to abandon, option to defer and option to contract are applied to 5 types among 11 types. Simulations are executed a development project in the vicinity of Gwangmyung station. Project values are estimated and those are greater than the original NPV. This paper shows that the probability of the success of a development project more increases when real options are applied to the agreement.