고속철도 개통이 관광수요에 미치는 영향: KTX 강릉선을 중심으로

Abstract

Purpose –In Korea, cars are a mostly used transportation for the tourism purposes rather than public transportations, such as bus, train, and so on. However, the number of users for the high-speed rail in Korea have been rapidly increased since KTX opened in 2004. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the effect of opening high-speed rail on tourism demand and investigate the extent of high-speed rail’s opening effect on tourism demand by time line. Research Design, data, and methodology –The research design for this study is fold two parts. First, Reg-ARIMA was used to examine the causal relationship between the opening high-speed rail and the tourism demand in destination. Second, the size of effect due to the opening high-speed rail was identified by performing the counterfactual analysis, comparing the difference between the forcasted and real-measured number of tourists. The monthly time series data from January 2013 to December 2019 was used to conduct the empirical analysis. Result –The empirical results showed that the opening high-speed rail positively increased the tourism demand in destination with seasonal difference. Conclusions –The opening high-speed rail not only increases the tourism demand in the destination, but also disperses the demand for tourism during the off-season.