CEO Overconfidence, Loan-Loss Provisions, and the Effect of Country Corruption: An International Investigation

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between CEO overconfidence and bank recognition of loan-loss provisions (LLPs) and the effect of country corruption level on this relationship by analyzing cross-country data. We use a sample of 3,047 financial institutions in 53 different countries over 2013-2018. The results reveal that overconfident CEOs are more likely to recognize lower LLPs, suggesting that they overestimate (underestimate) favorable (unfavorable) outcomes of loan collection. Furthermore, we find that lower country-level corruption attenuates this relationship. We further show that overconfident CEOs reduce only the recognition of discretionary components of LLPs.