https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/758 2026-04-04T03:28:47Z 2026-04-04T03:28:47Z Cho, Dooyeon Rho, Seunghwa https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/210825 2026-02-12T06:00:36Z 2026-03-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches help shape inflation expectations?: Evidence from Japan Authors: Cho, Dooyeon; Rho, Seunghwa Abstract: Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.

2026-03-01T00:00:00Z Han, Bada Kim, Dongwook Yun, Youngjin https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/211320 2026-03-18T01:00:44Z 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z

Title: International reserve accumulation: balancing private inflows with public outflows Authors: Han, Bada; Kim, Dongwook; Yun, Youngjin Abstract: We explore international reserve accumulation in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), rationalizing policymakers’ belief that it counteracts the negative effects of capital inflows. Empirical evidence reveals that EMEs accumulate reserves in response to capital inflows driven by global push factors, especially when there are limitations on residents’ investments abroad. We elucidate these findings with a three-period model of a small open economy. In the first period, a large direct investment inflow occurs, prompting an EME to save abroad for consumption smoothing. If frictions hinder private overseas investments, the government can accumulate reserves to supplement insufficient private outflows. The theory highlights the role of reserves in managing capital inflows, as substantiated by our empirical findings.

2026-02-01T00:00:00Z Koh, Kanghyock Han, Hyojin https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/211400 2026-03-19T10:00:45Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Does Consumption Spending Respond to Daily Stock Market Returns? Authors: Koh, Kanghyock; Han, Hyojin Abstract: We investigate investors' spending responses to daily stock market returns using daily card transaction data in Seoul, South Korea. We document robust evidence of positive associations between daily card spending at karaoke lounges, pubs, and bars and stock market returns. We provide suggestive evidence that our findings are more consistent with the mental accounting framework. Our nonparametric analysis documents evidence of investors' loss aversion. We document little evidence of a gambling motive among investors. This study provides new evidence on investors' behavioural spending responses to stock market fluctuations.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z 이정환 https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/210236 2026-01-13T00:30:15Z 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z

Title: 기업의 자본배분관점에서 코리아 디스카운트 분석: PBR 변화의 결정요인을 중심으로 Authors: 이정환 Abstract: 본 연구는 한국 기업들의 ‘코리아 디스카운트’ 해소를 위한 최근의 밸류업(value-up) 정책과 관련하여, 핵심 지표인 주가순자산비율(PBR)의 변화를 기업 자본배분 정책의 관점에서 분석하였다. 기존 연구와 달리, PBR의 단기 및 장기 변화를 모형화하여 현금유보, 배당, 투자 정책이 기업 가치에 미치는 영향을 직접 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 전체 기업군에서 현금유보 증가, 연구개발(R&D) 투자 확대, 일반 투자 증가 및 배당 증대가 장기적으로 PBR 개선에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 반면, 제조업 대형주의 경우 배당 확대가 PBR 제고에 미약하거나 오히려 부정적인 영향을 미쳤으며, R&D 투자 요소가 더 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 배당증가가 주로 대형제조업주에 집중되었다는 점을 고려해 볼 때 전체 KOSPI 지수 시계열에서 나타난 배당 증가와 동반된 PBR 하락 추세와 일관된 결과이다. 지배구조 개선 역시 일반 기업군에서는 중장기적으로 긍정적 효과가 있었으나, 대형 제조업에서는 그 효과가 미미하거나 부정적인 것으로 나타나 차별성이 확인되었다. 본 연구는 PBR의 변화를 단기 및 장기 관점에서 모형화하여 기업의 자본배분 전략의 영향을 명확히 하고, 특히 한국 경제의 핵심인 대형 제조업과 다른 기업군 간 차별성을 도출했다는 점에서 학술적 공헌점이 있다.

2025-12-01T00:00:00Z