Usefulness of risk stratification models for colorectal cancer based on fecal hemoglobin concentration and clinical risk factors

Abstract

Background and Aims We aimed to develop risk stratification models for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) and colorectal cancer (CRC) based on fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentration and clinical risk factors.

Methods We reviewed screenees aged ≥50 years who underwent fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and colonoscopy and developed risk-scoring models for ACRN and CRC using logistic regression analysis. Participants were classified into low- (risk lower than that in FIT-negative individuals), intermediate- (risk higher than that in FIT-negative but lower than that in FIT-positive individuals), high- (risk similar to that in FIT-positive individuals), and very-high- (risk higher than that in FIT-positive individuals) risk groups.

Results Of 3733 participants, 367 (9.8%) and 70 (1.9%) had ACRN and CRC, respectively. On multivariable analysis, age (ß = .043/y), former smoker (ß = .401), current smoker (ß = .841), diabetes (ß = .097), and square root of f-Hb concentration (ß = .071) were significantly associated with ACRN. In terms of CRC, age (ß = .035/y) and square root of f-Hb concentration (ß = .004) were associated factors. After point assignments based on the regression coefficient, we could classify screenees as low-, intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk groups. ACRN was identified in 2.9%, 5.3%, 16.2%, and 35.7% of screenees in the low-, intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk groups, respectively. CRC was identified in .1%, .5%, 3.9%, and 11.1% of screenees in the low-, intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk groups, respectively.

Conclusions The proposed models can effectively stratify the risk for ACRN and CRC and provide accurate information on this risk in individuals who undergo FIT.