Assessing the Validity of the Criteria for the Extreme Risk Category of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Abstract

Objective: To validate the criteria for the extreme risk category for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Methods: An observational cohort study of 35,464 individuals with established ASCVD was performed using the National Health Information Database. Incident myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and death in patients with established ASCVD was investigated to validate the criteria for the extreme risk category of ASCVD defined as the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and history of premature ASCVD. Results: Among 35,464 patients, 77.97% of them were classified into the extreme risk group of ASCVD. A total of 28.10%, 39.61%, and 32.12% had DM, CKD, and a history of premature ASCVD, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 8.39 years, MI, ischemic stroke, and all-cause death were found in 3.87%, 8.51%, and 23.98% of participants, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patients with DM had higher risk for MI (hazard ratio [HR], 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45–1.81), ischemic stroke (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.29–1.50), and all-cause death (HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.45–1.59) than those without DM. Patients with CKD had 1.56 times higher risk for MI, 1.12 times higher risk for ischemic stroke, and 1.34 times higher risk for death than those without CKD. However, the risk for MI, ischemic stroke, and all-cause death was not different between patients with and without a history of premature ASCVD. Conclusion: DM and CKD, but not a history of premature ASCVD, could be considered as reasonable criteria of an extreme risk for ASCVD.