극장과 VOD 흥행에서 홀드백을 포함한 영화 흥행 요인의 영향

Abstract

Research on movie revenue has been divided into analysis of traditional box-office and studies on online market such as VOD, which have recently emerged. However, the commercial success of a particular movie consists of the box-office revenue and the secondary market performance including VOD. The box-office and VOD markets are connected by holdback, which is the time difference of movie and VOD release, and hence the structured relationship should be considered. In this study, a path analysis model was established and analyzed in order to compare the effects of various factors for the box-office revenue and VOD downloads including the direct and indirect effects of holdback. As a result of an empirical analysis of 237 movies released from November 2018 to October 2019, the factors that mainly influence the box-office success of a movie are marketing and distribution characteristics such as expert ratings and the number of screens, and those for VOD success are creative characteristics such as movie rating and star power. In terms of genre, it was found that drama is advantageous for box-office and action genre for VOD. It was confirmed that holdback tends to directly or indirectly increase box-office revenue and also decrease VOD downloads. The results of this study can have various implications for effective operation strategies and additional copyright contracts including holdbacks for film producers, distributors, and other secondary market stakeholders.