회귀분석을 통한 공동주택 하자소송 판결금 예측

Abstract

공동주택 하자소송은 높은 항소율을 갖는다. 기존 연구에서 하자소송 방지를 목적으로 판결금을 예측했지만 복잡한 건설 특성상 분쟁은 불가피하다. 본 논문은 하자소송 이후, 판결금의 적정성을 판단할 수 있는 식을 제안하여 항소제기 의사결정도구로 활용한다. 판결금과 영향요인 간 관계파악을 위해 하자소송 판례 28개를 회귀분석하고 전유부 단위면적을 반영한 판결금과 하자보증금을 사용한 판결금 예측식을 도출하였다. 이 두 식을 검증해본 결과 앞의 식이 더 높은 정확도를 보였으며 이 식은 불필요한 소송을 방지해 당사자의 부담을 덜어 줄 수 있다.

There are various types and causes of apartment defects, and thus, appraisal process is challenging. For this reason, the appeal rate forapartment defects lawsuits reaches 58%, which is higher than other civil litigation. Previous studies have mainly suggested judgmentsprediction formulas that can be used before litigations to prevent defect lawsuits. However, in many cases, the lawsuits are inevitable due tothe complex characteristics in terms of construction methods and residents’ satisfaction. This paper proposes equations for judging theappropriateness of the compensation cost after the first trial to support decision-making for filing appeal. A regression analysis is conductedagainst 28 cases on apartments defects in order to identify the relations between independent and dependent variables. The results show thattwo types of prediction equations are appropriate : judgment cost reflecting unit area, and judgment cost using security deposit for repairingdefects. According to verification, the former is more accurate than the latter. The estimation equations in this paper can provide a reasonablesettlement money so that the providers and the residents can reach an amicable agreement, and the judgment cost appropriateness after thefirst trial can be judged to prevent additional litigation.