Analyzing systemic risk using non-linear marginal expected shortfall and its minimum spanning tree

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a new theoretical framework for analyzing the systemic risk using the marginal expected shortfall (MES) and its correlation-based minimum spanning tree (MST). At first, we develop two parametric models of MES with their closed-form solutions based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Our models are derived from the non symmetric quadratic form, which allows them to consolidate the non-linear relationship between the stock and market returns. Secondly, we discover the evidences related to the utility of our models and the possible association in between the non-linear relationship and the emergence of severe systemic risk by considering the US financial system as a benchmark In this context, the evolution of MES also can be regarded as a reasonable proxy of systemic risk Lastly, we analyze the structural properties of the systemic risk using the MST based on the computed series of MES. The topology of MST conveys the presence of sectoral clustering and strong co-movements of systemic risk leaded by few hubs during the crisis. Specifically, we discover that the Depositories are the majority sector leading the connections during the Non-Crisis period, whereas the Broker-Dealers are majority during the Crisis period.