대립인가 협력인가?: 우즈베키스탄과 타지키스탄 간의 로군댐 분쟁

Abstract

Where Rogun Dam disputes between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are going appears to be a watershed which decides the formation and continuation of integrated water-energy management system and, furthermore, the future of regional economic cooperation. Tajikistan’s reasonable option will be strengthening safety by reducing height and size of proposed Rogun Dam, while increasing profits. An alternative plan to guarantee economic efficiency in spite of reducing the Rogun’s height could be a linkage of Rogun project with CASA-1000 Project. Tajikistan will be able to resolve the repeated problems of surplus electricity in summer. Exporting, at the same time, part of electricity produced by Rogun Dam to South Asia, Tajikistan can compensate the anticipated amount of loss due to reduced production of electricity. There is high probability for two countries to come to agreement through mutual concession. It is helpful for two sides to prefer obtaining solid “absolute gains” with continuity to seeking “relative gains” vainly for increasing national interests of these two interdependent countries.