Index of National Power: How to Assess the Basic Capacity of a Nation

Abstract

This paper proposes a new quantitative index of national power and the probability and measurement framework with which to assess the validity of the proposed index and other existing indices of national power. It shows that (1) a simple quantitative index of national power can be constructed by considering only the most basic and enduring element of a nation’s power – its human resources; (2) such an index has a systematic relationship with winning probabilities in many fields of international competition, so passes the test of external validity; (3) all the well-known and widely used indices of national power not only fail the test of external validity, but also exaggerate the relative power of stronger nations; and (4) despite its simplicity, the new index is informative and can be used as points of reference in a variety of research situations.