주택경기 순환모형에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study examined the applicability of new cycle phase model to explain the housing market in Korea by examining the feasibility of the housing related existing theories, and the factors having effects on decision of the cycle phases of the individual housing market was drawn. First, the regression propensity to the balanced phases(1,5,9 phases) by increase of the volume but balanced phases(1,5,9 phases) was examined. It is assumed that the information search effect is on the housing market in Korea. Second, the balance of the price and volume may be broken due to the conditions of individual markets or the economy condition, and it showed the flow of large oval appearing the cycle of the counterclockwise. Third, in the case of the fluctuation of volume faster than the price fluctuations in the housing market, the cycle phases showed the turning trajectory of the counterclockwise. Fourth, the hive circulation model did not show the feasibility on the domestic housing market. In other words, it is difficult to examine the purchase seed money effect on the housing market in Korea, but it is assumed that there are the loss aversion effects or information search effect on the contraction phase. Finally, the representative factors which have the effects on phase move of the expansion phase and the contraction phases are the unsold, the net population decrease, the migration in cities and provinces, rental price 6-month moving average, per capita wages and economic growth.