가구주의 탄생 코호트 효과를 고려한 주택수요 분석모형

Abstract

There exist various arguments about future housing demand in the Korean housing market which is facing with aging population along with up-coming retirement of the baby boom generation. Although the baby boom generation has been a dominant force driving the housing market, they experienced both the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s and the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Due to their distinctive experiences during their wealth formation ages, many scholars suspect that their housing demand and preference would differ from the earlier generations who formed their wealth during surging economic development period. This paper develops a new form of housing demand estimation model to overcome the limitations of the Mankiw-Weil model and to sort out the birth cohort effect from age effect on housing demand. The model is based on a non-linear form, and applies the non-linear least square estimation procedure for the estimation of the empirical model. The empirical estimation results show that the baby boom generation holds low standards of housing consumption than other generations. It implies that there would be extra decrease in housing demand when the baby boom generation is getting aged, comparing with the aging effect of the earlier generations.