건축허가면적 지표 증감에 따른 건설투자 변동 분석

Abstract

Recently, the construction business cycle in Korea has been depicted as a different pattern from the national economy business cycle showing very unstable aspect in its frequency. To forecast the future construction market aspect, we usually depend on the building permit area indicator from construction industry itself as a typical and common method. However, this indicator have very low objectivity due to rare and limited evaluation of their statistical characteristics and accuracy. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to suggest the usefulness and accuracy of building permit area Indicator in forecasting the construction investment fluctuation as construction business cycle. To provide an objective assessment, Vector Autoregression model(VAR) analysis have been applied. As a result of this study, There is a mutual feedback between Construction Investment and building permit area. Also the variation of construction investment is influenced by building permit area and residential construction investment have brought about increasing non-residential construction investment. The results of usefulness assessment of building permit area indicator will give a new standard in forecasting construction business cycle.