주택시장 체감지표의 주택시장지표 예측력 분석

Abstract

The subject of the study is “Are the housing market survey indices helpful for forecasting the housing market indices?” Chapter 1 explains the background and the purposes of the study. In chapter 2, various past researches related to the expectation hypothesis and the survey index are reviewed. Chapter 3 describes the kinds of housing market indices. In Chapter 4, the forecasting equations that we will use in our empirical work are specified and we analyze the predictive power of housing market survey indices. Finally, chapter 5 is the conclusions which include the implications and limitations of the study and the research subject findings. Main findings are as follows. The housing sale BSI is useful indicator to forecast the housing price, the housing construction permits, and the housing transactions. The housing rent BSI is useful for forecasting the housing price, the rent price, and the unsold housing. The construction BSI is very important indicator for forecasting housing construction permits.