ANP기법을 이용한 지역효용측정과 지역간 인구이동에 관한연구

Abstract

The growth of population in a region can be divided into two parts, natural growth within a region and migration across regions. The natural growth is simply determined by the survival rate of cohort and the age specific birth rate of women. Whereas migration across regions is taken place by various factors including culture, language, etc. Hence the difficulty in forecasting regions population lies in forecasting migration across regions. In this paper, it is premised that people's migration is caused by the difference in the place utility across regions. Here, the place utility of people in a region consists of six factors(per capita income, infrastructure quality, cultural facilities, education, environment quality, information and communication). The place utility is differentiated by gender and cohort. And based on this premise the place utility of people is measured using the Analytic Network Process. Moreover, the mobility sensitivity index is gauged by ARIMA. Finally the model developed in the paper appears more accurate to forecast the population of a region relative to the cohort survived matrix method.