조성법과 Markov Chain 모형을 결합한 지역 인구예측모형에 관한 연구
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | 김홍배 | - |
dc.contributor.author | 김재구 | - |
dc.contributor.author | 임병철 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-12-20T20:06:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-12-20T20:06:04Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-09-19 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2009-11 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1226-7147 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/175823 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Population of a city is a leading indicator in urban planning. Because sizes of various infrastructure including housings, streets and facilities related to urban services are mostly determined according to the population of a target year. Hence, an inaccurate forecasting of population will result in inefficient resource allocation within a city. However, there is usually a considerable difference between a forecasted population and the actual population. The study attempts to develop a more accurate population forecasting model. specifically, In the model the cohort-component method is used for natural growth and the Markov chain model for migration. Also, To enhance the accuracy of the stationary Markov chain model, the study adopts the non-stationary model by adding migration factors including the housing developments and the distance between the move-in and the move-out city. The study specifically shows that the model developed reduces the difference between forecasting and actual population. Also, using the model the policy scenarios on balanced development are examined. | - |
dc.language | 한국어 | - |
dc.language.iso | ko | - |
dc.publisher | 대한국토·도시계획학회 | - |
dc.title | 조성법과 Markov Chain 모형을 결합한 지역 인구예측모형에 관한 연구 | - |
dc.title.alternative | Model Development for Forecasting Regional Population - Using Cohort-Component Method and Markov Chain Model - | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor | 김홍배 | - |
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation | 국토계획, v.44, no.6, pp.139 - 146 | - |
dc.relation.isPartOf | 국토계획 | - |
dc.citation.title | 국토계획 | - |
dc.citation.volume | 44 | - |
dc.citation.number | 6 | - |
dc.citation.startPage | 139 | - |
dc.citation.endPage | 146 | - |
dc.type.rims | ART | - |
dc.identifier.kciid | ART001394331 | - |
dc.description.journalClass | 2 | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | N | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | kci | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 인구예측 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 인구이동 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 조성법 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Markov Chain Model | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Forecasting Population | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Migration | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Cohort Component Method | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Markov Chain Model | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Forecasting Population | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Migration | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Cohort Component Method | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Markov Chain Model | - |
dc.identifier.url | https://www.dbpia.co.kr/journal/articleDetail?nodeId=NODE01311166 | - |
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