성별 · 연령별 지역효용을 고려한 지역간 인구이동 예측 모형개발

Abstract

The population of a region is generally forecasted by both its natural growth and migration across regions. The former is simply determined using regional demographical parameters such as the age specific birth rate of women and the survival rates of gender and cohorts. However, migration is always difficult to forecast because of the various factors involved. Consequently, the accuracy of regional population forecast largely depends upon the accuracy of migration. It is commonly recognized that the willingness to migrate is different according to gender and cohort. This indicates that gender and cohort must be specifically considered in a model to forecast migration. In this study, it is premised that, i) migration takes place due to differences in place utility between regions, ii) populations are partially mobile, and iii) place utility differs by gender and cohort. This paper attempts to construct a model to forecast migrations across regions by taking into account the aforementioned considerations. Place utility is derived from various factors and represents regional characteristics including regional per capita income, infrastructure, culture, environment level, education, and information and communication. The weight of each factor is determined by the Analytical Hierarchical Process. This paper develops a migration model and subsequently diagnoses each regional economy in Korea. Development policy directions for each region are suggested based on the results obtained.