Flood Damage Prediction for Provincial Governments in Korea based on Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change is a major problem for Earth and its inhabitants. Thus, there is a sense of urgency to properly address climate change and its impacts. In this study, estimated damage by the years 2040 and 2090 in Korea was predicted in relation to flood damage, which is one of disasters caused by climate change. To derive each flood damage prediction, regions in Korea were classified as physical drainage systems or natural drainage systems, and important road and stream facilities were selected for analysis. Flood damage prediction was then calculated using the RCP scenarios. Based on the predictions, reduction measures for flood damage were then suggested. The analysis conducted estimated the costs of flood damage for entire areas in Korea based on RCP scenarios as ranging from $91,341,457 to $139,983,880 in 2040, and from $128,011,717 to $166,876,272 in 2090. In the scenarios, after flood damage levels were high in Gyeonggi Province, Gyeonsang South Province, Chungcheong North Province, and Gangwon Province (in the northern side of Korea) in 2040, and Jeolla South Province, Gyeonggi Province, and Chungcheong North Province (in the southeastern area of Korea) showed high damage levels to stream facilities. The results of this research can provide a basis for decision making for a proactive response to natural disasters caused by future climate change impacts.