키르기스스탄의 체제전환 경로: 급진적 경제자유화의 실험

Abstract

This paper aims to analyse the background and several important features of transition strategy of Kyrgyzstan in 1990s, and examine its positive and negative influences on the economic outcome in 1990s and 2000s. Based on the analysis, we can draw several lessons from the country’s radical transition strategy and evaluate its further prospect to the economic development. The experience of the economic transition in Kyrgyzstan suggests us following several implications. Firstly, big bang approach chosen by the republic is difficult to be positively evaluated, at least, in regard of economic performance in 1990s. So it could be concluded that 'shock therapy’was a bitter medicine and apparently caused destructive side effect, although it brought into early signal of economic recovery. Secondly, the Akaev’s government seized the power in 1990, dismantled the Soviet central commanding economy and made the reduction of state intervention to the economy, but it maintained strong organizational structure and power. So, it can suggest that,even if what kind of transition strategy would be chosen, there needed strong role of the government to maintain and realize its strategy. Thirdly, Kyrgyzstan applied a ‘big bang’ approach to its privatization program and implemented radical and rapid privatization. Kyrgyzstan’s experiences of unsuccessful privatized enterprises proved that it is important to create appropriate business environment and infrastructure. Fourthly, in case of Kyrgyzstan, international assistance was key factor to introduce economic reforms and implement macroeconomic stabilization. Additionally,the republic showed that it is almost impossible to attract large scale of foreign direct investment to transition economy without healthy control of the government on the macro-economic stabilization and the economy itself.