Greenflation, a myth or fact? Empirical evidence from 26 OECD countries

Abstract

Among the various effects of the green transition on the macroeconomy, we examined the unintended effects of the green transition on inflation, the so-called “greenflation”. We analyzed panel data from 26 OECD countries covering the period from 2005 to 2019 using four models based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve model. To date, only a few studies have examined greenflation, particularly in terms of empirical investigation. The main contribution of this study to the literature is to provide empirical evidence of greenflation. We also provide empirical evidence on the issues in the NKPC literature that the output gap better explains inflation dynamics than unit labor costs and confirm the demise of the Phillips curve. Estimates from the Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG), Augmented Mean Group (AMG), and Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) models indicate that the green transition has an upward inflationary impact on headline inflation, but no significant impact on core inflation. In addition, we have examined four circumstances under which the green transition may affect inflation that have not been sufficiently discussed in the literature: increased green transition spending, carbon pricing, increased demand for critical minerals, and the low energy density of renewable energy. Each of these circumstances has the potential to exert both upward and downward pressures simultaneously. Our suggestion to policymakers is that they do not yet need to change their current view of monetary policy with respect to greenflation, but they should carefully consider policy designs that take into account the unintended effects of the energy transition.