암호화폐 시장에서 무기한 선물 도입이 시장 복잡성 및 효율성에 미치는 영향

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of perpetual swaps on structural complexity and market efficiency within cryptocurrency markets. Utilizing 15-minute interval price data from 35 cryptocurrencies, we employ multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), Multifractal-based measure of the degree of market efficiency (MED), and Market deficiency measure (MDM) to comparatively evaluate market characteristics before and after the introduction of perpetual swaps. Our empirical analysis reveals a substantial decrease in multifractality and structural complexity across most cryptocurrencies post-introduction, particularly pro- nounced over longer horizons (4–6 months). This reduction indicates enhanced information dissemination and more efficient price formation mechanisms. Notably, Bitcoin (BTC), benefiting from superior liquidity and efficient information flow, exhibited relatively stable multifractal characteristics, although significant volatility driven by fat-tail distributions remained persistent. Statistically significant improvements in market efficiency were consistently demonstrated via paired t-tests, one-sided t-tests, and Wilcoxon non-parametric tests. These improvements were particularly salient during extended observation periods, providing robust empirical evidence that perpetual swaps markedly enhance market efficiency. Consequently, our findings highlight that the introduction of perpetual swaps contributes meaningfully to cryptocurrency market efficiency beyond mere liquidity enhancement, promoting more accurate price discovery and reducing informational asymmetries.