성수동 팝업스토어와 주변 음식업 생존 간의 관계: 소셜미디어 데이터를 활용한 실증 분석

Abstract

본 연구는 팝업스토어가 집적하고 있는 상권을 대상으로 팝업스토어와 주변 음식업 간의 생존 관계를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 기존에 수집하기 어려웠던 팝업스토어 데이터를 소셜미디어를 통해 확보하고, 이를 바탕으로 생존분석을수행한다. 또한 시간의존계수를 활용하여 팝업스토어와 음식업과의 동적인 관계를 파악하고 입체적인 해석을 제시하고자 한다. 연구 결과는 도시계획 및 상권 관리 정책 수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있으며, 특히 정량적 접근을 통해 팝업스토어와 음식업 간의 관계를 실증적으로 규명하였다는 점에서 학술적 의의를지닌다.

This study investigates the potential impact of pop-up stores on the survival of nearby food establishments through a time-dependent survival analysis. First, non-parametric Kaplan-Meier survival curves reveal a clear divergence between restaurants located near pop-up stores and those without such proximity. The survival curve for restaurants near popups declines more gradually, indicating higher long-term survival probabilities. This difference was statistically validated using the log-rank test, providing empirical support for the hypothesis that pop-up stores may have a positive effect on the survival of food businesses. Subsequently, a semi-parametric time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that the presence of popup stores significantly increased the survival probability of nearby food establishments. Specifically, the presence of pop-up stores was associated with an approximate 29% reduction in the hazard of restaurant closure. This relationship remained robust even after controlling for locational, commercial, and demographic variables. However, the hazard function analysis suggests a temporal threshold effect, where prolonged or excessive exposure to pop-up store activity may, over time, increase the risk of closure for nearby restaurants.