Global Value Chains and the Changing Pattern of North-South Trade: Apparel, Electronics and Automotive Sectors in 2005-2014

Abstract

Manufacturing production shifted to developing countries over the last decades, giving rise to global value chains (GVCs). It increased manufacturing exports from the Global South to the North, reshaping the pattern of international trade and division of labor. However, since the global economic crisis of 2007-2008, a new trend called “shifting end markets” has emerged, or the rise of the South as end markets in GVCs. Yet, economic growth began to slow down over the past few years in many emerging economies. This paper examines the changing patterns of North-South trade, focusing on three GVCs - apparel, electronics and automotive - in 2005-2014. Using bilateral trade statistics from UN Comtrade, the patterns of North-South trade are analyzed for both intermediate and finished goods in each sector. The paper confirms the rise of South-to-North manufacturing exports although the growth pattern differed significantly across the sectors. It also finds that North-South trade patterns have become stabilized since 2012 with pre-crisis dynamics moderated particularly in finished goods. Finally, the relative role of Northern and Southern countries in South-bound exports varied across the sectors, while South-South linkages appear more robust in the face of the recent slowdown in emerging market economies.