Social dynamics of hyperbole - social media sentiment analysis for hype detection in emerging technologies: a conceptual approach

Abstract

This exploratory study introduces a sentiment-based framework for the social dynamics of hype around emerging technologies to support strategic investment decisions and contribute to innovation and strategic management research. Drawing on theories of herding behaviour and information cascades, we analysed social media sentiment of the Reddit discourse and investigated bubbles in representative financial assets across four emerging technology cases 'Metaverse', 'Decentralized Finance (DeFi)', 'Non-fungible Token (NFT)', and 'Hydrogen Economy' over one-year periods. Additionally, we compared results against measures of search volumes, news coverage, patent filings, and academic publications. We find two essential characteristics of the social dynamics of hype: intensifying positive sentiment and increasing conformity of sentiment towards a positive majority. Since hype can distort decision-making and hinder objective innovation assessments, this study offers practitioners a sentiment-based approach to navigate speculative hype and support decision-making.