Effect of Molten Corium Behavior Uncertainty on the Severe Accident Progress

Abstract

Uncertainty of a severe accident code output needs to be handled reliably considering its use in safety regulation of nuclear industry. In particular, severe accident codes are utilized for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), where the uncertainty of severe accident progress should be considered carefully due to its influence on human reliability analysis. Therefore, in this study, the uncertainty analysis of severe accident progress was performed using MELCOR code, and a total of 200 data sets of in-vessel uncertainty parameters were generated by Latin hypercube sampling method. The rank regression analysis was also performed to investigate the effect of uncertainty parameters on the severe accident progress. Sensitivity coefficients (SCs) in MELCOR such as molten clad drainage rate and zircaloy melt breakout temperature showed significant influence on relocation time and dryout time of lower plenum. However, the influence of uncertainty parameter diminished as the accident progressed.