Collective Dynamics of the Spiral of Silence: The Role of Ego-Network Size

Abstract

The spiral of silence persists as a major explanatory mechanism in public opinion research, linking individuals' perception of the opinion climate and their likelihood of speaking out. However, how locally expressed opinions (or, remaining silent) translate into global opinion distributions and the conditions affecting such generative processes have rarely been examined. Using agent-based modeling, this study attempts to explore a boundary condition affecting opinion dynamics-the distributions of individuals' communication network size, which is affected by the widespread use of social media. The results suggest that the spiraling phenomenon on a global scale becomes more likely when enough people exist between those who have different perceptions of the opinion distribution, keeping the population from being polarized.