Building Damage Assessment Using Scenario Based Tsunami Numerical Analysis and Fragility Curves

Abstract

A combination of a deterministic approach and fragility analysis is applied to assess tsunami damage caused to buildings. The area selected to validate the model is Imwon Port in Korea. The deterministic approach includes numerical modeling of tsunami propagation in the East Sea following an earthquake on the western coast of Japan. The model is based on the linear shallow-water equations (LSWE) augmented with Boussinesq approximation to account for dispersion effects in wave propagation, and coastal wave run-up is modeled by non-linear shallow-water equations (NLSWE). The output from the deterministic model comprises inundation depth. The numerical output is used to perform fragility analysis for buildings vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis in the port area. Recently developed fragility curves-based on the ordinal regression method-are used for damage probability estimates. The extent of structural damage in the areas under a tsunami hazard is identified by the numerical modeling of tsunami features. Our numerical model offers high bathymetric resolution, which enables us to capture flow features at the individual structure level and results in improved estimation of damage probability. This approach can serve as a measure of assessing structure vulnerability for areas with little or no records of tsunami damage and provide planners with a better understanding of structure behavior when a tsunami strikes.