Development of a Probabilistic Spatio-Magnitude Sinkhole Hazard Model

Abstract

A number of sinkhole events have emerged in East Central Florida (ECF) and the consequences of its occurrence lead to loss of property and/or human lives. Increasing concerns for the potential risk of sinkholes have raised the necessity of developing a sinkhole hazard map for the region. A sinkhole hazard can be assessed as the probability of occurrence accounting for time, location, and magnitude. This paper presents the development of 1) a probability-based sinkhole hazard model and 2) a spatio-magnitude sinkhole hazard map for ECF within a geographic information system (GIS) environment. Logistic regression (LR) method was used for the spatial probability analysis and a cumulative distribution function (CDF) method was used for the magnitude probability analysis. The developed sinkhole hazard model was validated by existing data. The probabilistic sinkhole map for ECF would provide useful information on future sinkhole hazard in order for decision makers and land-use planners to build suitable strategies for long-term development. © 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.