Development of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Estimating Construction Time Durations

Abstract

High level of uncertainty is one of the most distinct characteristics of construction operations. This is especially true when it comes to estimating construction operation durations because the operations are performed in the field where unpredictable site conditions may influence production. In order to expedite the modeling, analysis, and optimization of a construction operation, computer simulation has been utilized in construction with the help of computer information technology. Due to the nature of computer simulation, most simulation methods have difficulty responding to delays and interruptions once the simulation begins. The researchers developed an alternative method to categorize and quantify interference factors. Four case study projects were selected to estimate the productivity with respond to the interference factors. The research results showed that applying interference factors to the productivity estimation improved its accuracy significantly. The researchers suggest that the durations of construction operation be estimated by utilizing computer simulation methods that are capable of reflecting construction delays and interference.