Trilemma versus dilemma: Monetary autonomy and long-term interest rate independence

Abstract

This study investigates the issue of trilemma versus dilemma in relation to monetary autonomy. We construct a long-term interest rate independence index (LRI) apart from the conventional monetary policy independence evaluated on the basis of the short-term interest rate independence index (SRI). LRI intends to capture the independence of domestic financial conditions and the monetary policy in a broad sense. Empirical results are as follows. On the basis of SRI, trilemma holds well, in which trade-offs between SRI and international capital mobility and between SRI and exchange rate stability are found. This outcome is consistent with the findings of many past studies that support trilemma. However, on the basis of LRI, dilemma holds after the global financial crisis because only the trade-off between LRI and international capital mobility exists. This result is consistent with the conclusion of Rey (2013), which emphasized the huge effects of the global financial cycle on the domestic financial condition owing to the integration of international financial markets. Empirical results settle the issue between trilemma and dilemma. © 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.