한국·몽골 간 수출입 결정요인 분석

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the factors determining the export and import between Korea and Mongolia. Data were estimated and analyzed by quarter based time series through unit root tests and regression analysis. As a result, the model that the increase of income in both countries increase the import and the export between the two countries is convincing the most. The variables including the changes in relative prices and the change in exchange rate revealed weak explanatory power, except Mongolia's import equation. Therefore, in order to promote the trade, two countries need to endeavor to increase national income and the investment, and improve the productivity. Also, both countries need to aim at the improvement of competitiveness through the stabilization of macroeconomic variables, especially the stabilization of consumer prices. In Mongolia, the prices of the elements should be stabilized for the price stability.