해외 가스 플랜트 건설사업의 위험요인을 고려한 비용분석 모델에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to suggest a cost analysis model based on risk factors that can be used in the gas plant construction industry. The research method of this study is to examine and analyze construction stage details of five construction companies with experience of gas plant construction, and construction stage risk factors of domestic construction industry, domestic research institutions, and foreign institutions. In addition, a cost analysis model is suggested by using Fuzzy analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results of this study are as follows: First, construction stage details of five construction companies with experience of gas plant construction were examined and analyzed, and through this, a cost breakdown structure (1 Level∼4 Level) is suggested. And construction stage risk factors of domestic construction industry, domestic research institutions, and foreign institutions were examined and analyzed, and through this, 16 risk factors were drawn from domestic construction industry, 18 from domestic research institutions, and 16 from foreign institutions, and finally 28 risk factors were drawn after rearrangement. Second, triangular distribution is applied based on the construction stage cost breakdown structure and the risk factors, and here, with Fuzzy analysis, minimum and maximum values of the risk factors were analyzed and drawn through interviews with experts, and with Monte Carlo simulation, the risk factors were applied to the cost breakdown structure through interviews with experts, and the result values drawn through Fuzzy analysis were also applied to the cost breakdown structure. Additionally, as a result of verifying the cases with an analysis tool, @Risk, through the method above, it could be found that among the cost items reflecting the risk factors, construction cost, outsourcing cost, construction equipment cost, site management cost, water, light, and heat expenses, and safety management cost show cost variability through the bidding feasibility analysis model of this study.

The purpose of this study is to suggest a cost analysis model based on risk factors that can be used in the gas plant construction industry. The research method of this study is to examine and analyze construction stage details of five construction companies with experience of gas plant construction, and construction stage risk factors of domestic construction industry, domestic research institutions, and foreign institutions. In addition, a cost analysis model is suggested by using Fuzzy analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results of this study are as follows: First, construction stage details of five construction companies with experience of gas plant construction were examined and analyzed, and through this, a cost breakdown structure (1 Level∼4 Level) is suggested. And construction stage risk factors of domestic construction industry, domestic research institutions, and foreign institutions were examined and analyzed, and through this, 16 risk factors were drawn from domestic construction industry, 18 from domestic research institutions, and 16 from foreign institutions, and finally 28 risk factors were drawn after rearrangement. Second, triangular distribution is applied based on the construction stage cost breakdown structure and the risk factors, and here, with Fuzzy analysis, minimum and maximum values of the risk factors were analyzed and drawn through interviews with experts, and with Monte Carlo simulation, the risk factors were applied to the cost breakdown structure through interviews with experts, and the result values drawn through Fuzzy analysis were also applied to the cost breakdown structure. Additionally, as a result of verifying the cases with an analysis tool, @Risk, through the method above, it could be found that among the cost items reflecting the risk factors, construction cost, outsourcing cost, construction equipment cost, site management cost, water, light, and heat expenses, and safety management cost show cost variability through the bidding feasibility analysis model of this study.