VECM을 이용한 외환 및 금융위기 경제여건 변화가 대도시 주택시장에 미치는 영향 비교

Abstract

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic changes during foreign exchange crisis and financial crisis periods on metropolitan housing market, specifically focusing on seoul housing market, between 1998 and 2013. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study used granger causality analysis and vector error correction model (VECM) to find periodical relationship between seoul housing market and macroeconomic variables when world economic situation has changed. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS This study found that seoul housing market was significantly affected by the critical economic phase, such as foreign exchange and financial crises. Typically mortgage rate had the most great impact on housing sales price. The results also showd that housing sales price granger caused a jeonse price during the critical economic phase. 2. RESULTS The implications of this study are twofold. First, seoul housing market is very sensitive to the economic crisis. Second, it is necessary to understand that housing policy has different impact when dissimilar economic crises occur.