미중일 삼각 구도와 한국의 전략적 대응: 환태평양경제동반자협정(TPP)과 역내포괄적경제동반자협정(RCEP)의 사례를 중심으로

Abstract

The recent proliferation of multilateralized FTAs, as demonstrated by the U.S. and Japan’s participation into TPP negotiations, the launch of long-waited RCEP negotiations, and the completion of the 2nd round of TTIP negotiations, testifies that the global economic order enters into a new territory, departing from the era if bilateral FTAs in the early 21st century. After examining the repercussions of TPP and RCEP negotiations on the formation of regional order in East Asia, this paper seeks to suggest South Korea’s strategic choices. I posit that a variety of factors-the limited economic benefits of bilateral FTAs, the rise of China and the US institutional reactions to it, and the rivalry and cooperation between China and Japan-combined to generate East Asian countries’ accelerated push for multilateralized FTAs. Although the simultaneous progress place substantial strain on South Korea’s foreign policy, I argue that South Korea as a middle power to take a sequential approach to RCEP and TPP in order to play a mediating role between the US and China.

The recent proliferation of multilateralized FTAs, as demonstrated by the U.S. and Japan’s participation into TPP negotiations, the launch of long-waited RCEP negotiations, and the completion of the 2nd round of TTIP negotiations, testifies that the global economic order enters into a new territory, departing from the era if bilateral FTAs in the early 21st century. After examining the repercussions of TPP and RCEP negotiations on the formation of regional order in East Asia, this paper seeks to suggest South Korea’s strategic choices. I posit that a variety of factors-the limited economic benefits of bilateral FTAs, the rise of China and the US institutional reactions to it, and the rivalry and cooperation between China and Japan-combined to generate East Asian countries’ accelerated push for multilateralized FTAs. Although the simultaneous progress place substantial strain on South Korea’s foreign policy, I argue that South Korea as a middle power to take a sequential approach to RCEP and TPP in order to play a mediating role between the US and China.