시간적 계층을 이용한 교통사고 발생건수 예측
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Jun, Gwanyoung | - |
dc.contributor.author | Seong, Byeongchan | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-03-08T05:35:56Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2018-04 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1225-066X | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2383-5818 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/cau/handle/2019.sw.cau/2307 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 본 논문에서는 시간적 계층 개념을 활용하여 시계열 자료를 예측하는 방법을 소개한다. 횡단적 계층 자료 분석에서와 유사한 방법으로 중복되지 않는 시간적 계층을 시계열 자료에 구조화할 수 있다. 이러한 시간적 계층을 활용하여 조정된 예측은 기존의 계층별 독립적 기저 예측 및 상향식 예측보다 더 정확하고 강건한 예측값을 생성한다. 실증 분석으로서 국내 교통사고 발생건수를 시간적 계층 개념을 활용하여 예측한다. 분석 결과, 조정 예측이 기존의 다른 예측보다 예측 성능면에서 더 우수함을 확인할 수 있다. | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper introduces how to adopt the concept of temporal hierarchies to forecast time series data. Similarly as in hierarchical cross-sectional data, temporal hierarchies can be constructed for any time series data by means of non-overlapping temporal aggregation. Reconciliation forecasts with temporal hierarchies result in more accurate and robust forecasts when compared with the independent base and bottom-up forecasts. As an empirical example, we forecast traffic accident counts with temporal hierarchies and observe that reconciliation forecasts are superior to the base and bottom-up forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy. | - |
dc.format.extent | 11 | - |
dc.language | 한국어 | - |
dc.language.iso | KOR | - |
dc.publisher | KOREAN STATISTICAL SOC | - |
dc.title | 시간적 계층을 이용한 교통사고 발생건수 예측 | - |
dc.title.alternative | Temporal hierarchical forecasting with an application to traffic accident counts | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.5351/KJAS.2018.31.2.229 | - |
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation | KOREAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS, v.31, no.2, pp 229 - 239 | - |
dc.identifier.kciid | ART002343791 | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | N | - |
dc.identifier.wosid | 000437665800005 | - |
dc.citation.endPage | 239 | - |
dc.citation.number | 2 | - |
dc.citation.startPage | 229 | - |
dc.citation.title | KOREAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS | - |
dc.citation.volume | 31 | - |
dc.type.docType | Article | - |
dc.publisher.location | 대한민국 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | temporal hierarchies | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | reconciliation forecast | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | weighted least square estimator | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | ARIMA model | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | exponential smoothing method | - |
dc.relation.journalResearchArea | Mathematics | - |
dc.relation.journalWebOfScienceCategory | Statistics & Probability | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | esci | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | kci | - |
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
84, Heukseok-ro, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea (06974)02-820-6194
COPYRIGHT 2019 Chung-Ang University All Rights Reserved.
Certain data included herein are derived from the © Web of Science of Clarivate Analytics. All rights reserved.
You may not copy or re-distribute this material in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Clarivate Analytics.