Development of Forecasting Model in Tax Exemption Oil of Fisheries Using Seasonal ARIMA
- Authors
- 조용준; 김영화
- Issue Date
- Dec-2008
- Publisher
- 한국데이터정보과학회
- Keywords
- 수요예측; 시계열 예측; 어업용 면세유; SARIMA; Seasonal ARIMA.
- Citation
- 한국데이터정보과학회지, v.19, no.4, pp 1037 - 1046
- Pages
- 10
- Journal Title
- 한국데이터정보과학회지
- Volume
- 19
- Number
- 4
- Start Page
- 1037
- End Page
- 1046
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/cau/handle/2019.sw.cau/31568
- ISSN
- 1598-9402
- Abstract
- Recently, the oil suppliers who supply the tax-exempt oil to the fishery are confronted with big trouble in their supply and demand system due to the unstable global oil prices. We applied the seasonal ARIMA(SARIMA) model to the low-sulfur and high-sulfur crude oil which are in great request and developed forecasting systems for them. Since there are many parameters in SARIMA, it is difficult to estimate the optimal parameters, but it is overcome by using simulation looping program. In conclusion, we found that the obvious seasonality in demand of low-sulfur and these demands are tending downwards gradually.
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