거시경제변동이 가계신용 및 주택가격에 미치는 영향 연구

Abstract

With debits of the majority of households continuously increasing, external macro economic impacts, such as interest rate increases, rising inflation pressure and reducing incomes, heighten a possibility of debt default of general households. This means,given the fact that debts and assets of most households in Korea are disproportionately based on their houses, it is highly likely that the local housing market's instability can be triggered by potential house price drops. Hence, this study is designed to offer a basis to evaluate future housing approaches and housing policy to stabilize household credit and local housing market by finding out the correlation between macro economic factors and household credit and housing prices. As to analysis methods, in this study a stress test model was adopted and analyzed,using CreditPortfolioView devised by Mckinsey so as to find out the correlation between macro economic factors and household credit and housing prices. Also, in accordance with shock scenarios encompassing macro economic factors, such as interest rates, housing prices, liquidity and incomes, simulations were carried out so as to check how households'default rates influence housing prices. The study is structured in an order that the characteristics of household credit in Korea were defined first, and, then, correlations between macroeconomic factors and household credit and housing prices were analyzed. Afterwards, in the study, the author suggests polices to ensure stability of household credit and housing market.