Comparative analysis of two drought indices in the calculation of drought recovery time and implications on drought assessment: East Africa's Lake Victoria Basin

Abstract

Drought imposes severe, long-term effects on global environments and ecosystems. A better understanding of how long it takes a region to recover to pre-drought conditions after drought is essential for addressing future ecology risks. In this study, drought-related variables were obtained using remote sensing and reanalysis products for 2003 to 2016. The meteorological drought index [standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)] and agricultural drought index [vegetation condition index (VCI)] were employed to estimate drought duration time (DDT) and drought recovery time (DRT). To the basin’s west, decreasing rainfall and increasing potential evapotranspiration led to decreasing SPEI. On the east side, decreasing soil moisture from each depth effects vegetation condition, which results in a decreasing gross primary productivity and VCI. Extreme meteorological drought events are likely to occur in the basin’s northeastern and middle western areas, while the southern basin is more likely to suffer from extreme agricultural drought events. The mean SPEI-based DDT (2.45 months) was smaller than the VCI-based DDT (2.97 months); the average SPEI-based DRT (2.02 months) was larger than the VCI-based DRT (1.63 months). Most of the area needs 1 or 2 months to recover from drought except for the basin’s northwestern area, where the DRT is more than 8 months. DDT is the most important parameter in determining DRT. These results provide useful information about regional drought recovery that will help local governments looking to mitigate potential environmental risks and formulate appropriate agricultural policies in Lake Victoria Basin. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.