Projection of the Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Korea for 2030

Abstract

Background: Projection of future trends in disease burden can facilitate setting of priorities for health policies and resource allocation. We report here projections of disease-specific mortality and the burdens of various diseases in Korea from 2016 to 2030. Methods: Separate age-and sex-specific projection models for 21 major cause clusters from 2016 to 2030 were developed by applying coherent functional data models based on historical trends from 2002 to 2015. The age- and sex-specific years of life lost (YLL) for each cause cluster were projected based on the projected number of deaths. Years lived with disability (YLD) projections were derived using the 2015 age-and sex-specific YLD to YLL ratio. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) was the sum of YLL and YLD. Results: The total number of deaths is projected to increase from 275,777 in 2015 to 421,700 in 2030, while the age-standardized death rate is projected to decrease from 586.9 in 2015 to 447.3 in 2030. The largest number of deaths is projected to be a result of neoplasms (75,758 deaths for males; 44,660 deaths for females), followed by cardiovascular and circulatory diseases (34,795 deaths for males; 48,553 deaths for females). The three leading causes of DALYs for both sexes are projected to be chronic respiratory diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Conclusion: We demonstrate that NCDs will continue to account for the majority of the disease burden in Korea in the future.