Trans-basin interaction sustains multi-year marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Alaska

Abstract

Multi-year marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are major climate events with lasting ecological and economic effects. Though often seen as local Pacific phenomena, our study shows their persistence depends on trans-basin interactions between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Using observational data and climate model experiments, we find that prolonged MHWs occur as sequential warming episodes triggered by atmospheric wave trains crossing ocean basins. These wave trains alter surface heat flux, initiating MHWs in the GOA and changing North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In turn, Atlantic SST anomalies reinforce wave activity, fueling subsequent MHW episodes in a feedback loop. This mechanism appears in historical events (1949-52, 1962-65, 2013-16, and 2018-22), highlighting MHWs as a trans-basin phenomenon. Our findings link GOA MHWs to trans-basin atmospheric wave dynamics and identify North Atlantic SSTs as a potential predictor of their duration.