프로젝트 리스크 관리를 위한 신뢰도 함수 기반 수리모형 개발

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for finding a degree of influence of risk factors affecting the project activity. After risks of project activities are identified, influence of risk factors are evaluated based on AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). All identified risk factors are structured in forms of block diagrams. Reliability functions are derived based on block diagrams of risk factors and represents the probability of the project activity success. Based on the derived reliability functions, structural impact is calculated as a criterion for expressing a degree of influence of each risk affecting the fail of the project activities. Structural risk includes the structural impact and the probability of risk. It could be applied to determine the priorities of risks which should be controlled, and the use of such priorities could guarantee successful project activities. Finally, numerical examples of the proposed mathematical models are also given.