Critical Role of Northern Off-Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Forcing Associated with Central Pacific El Nino in More Frequent Tropical Cyclone Movements toward East Asia

Abstract

Observational records reveal that the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching East Asia in July-October is positively correlated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial and northern off-equatorial central Pacific (CP) oceans, indicating the significant impact of CP El Nino (CP-EN). Through experiments using a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model-based regional climate model, this study demonstrates that it is northern off-equatorial CP warming, rather than equatorial CP warming, that effectively induces local anomalous steering flows pertinent to the observed increase in TC activity over East Asia during CP-EN. Sensitivity experiments, in which the prescribed CP-EN-related SST anomaly is confined near the equator, do not capture the observed TC increase over East Asia, whereas those including the off-equatorial region successfully reproduce observed atmospheric and TC variabilities. The off-equatorial CP SST anomaly acts to expand the anomalous cyclonic response in the Philippine Sea farther northward. This produces a tunnel effect in the East China Sea, by which more TCs move to East Asian coastal regions (e.g., east China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan).