기후변화에 따른 한강 유역의 확률론적 가뭄 전이 분석

Abstract

The knowledge about drought propagation is very important in accurate estimation of hydrological drought characteristics and efficientdevelopment of early warning system. This study investigated a probabilistic relationship of drought propagation based on Bayesiannetwork model for historic period and for future projection under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 over the Han River basin. The results revealed that the propagation rate and lag time have increasing and decreasing trends from the historic period of 1967-2013 to the future periods of 2014-2053 and 2054-2100 under climate change, respectively. The probabilistic results of Bayesian model revealed that the probability of occurrence of lag time varied spatially and decreased when the intensity of meteorological drought changed from moderate to severe and extreme condition during 1967-2013. The values of probability increased in the first future period of 2014-2053 in several sub-basins and slight decreased in the second period of 2054-2100. The proposed probabilistic results will be useful for the decision makers to develop related policies with an appropriate insight toward the future drought status.