Probabilistic analysis of drought propagation over Han River basin under climate change

Abstract

The understanding of drought propagation between meteorological and hydrological drought is verynecessary to make early mitigation plan for hydrological drought. Therefore, in this study, we provided aprobabilistic relationship between lag time and the characteristics of meteorological drought based onBayesian network model, for historic and future projection in Han River basin. The results revealed thatthe propagation rate and lag time showed increasing and decreasing trends from historic period(1973-2013) to the first future period (2014-2052) and the second future period (2053-2100) respectively.The probability of occurrence of lag time is decreases when the intensity of meteorological droughtchanges from moderate to severe and extreme condition during 1973-2013. The similar results werefound for both future periods but the values of probability decreased during the first future period(2014-2053) and increased during the second period (2054-2100). The proposed probabilistic results willhelp the decision makers to develop policies with an appropriate insight toward the future drought status.