도시개발사업에서의 시스템 다이내믹스 기법의 재무적 타당성 분석

Abstract

This study attempts to build up an integrated and dynamic model for financial feasibility that can easily find out what the risk factors are and what the size of them is in urban development projects. This is very important in the urban development projects since they are carried out in a long period of time and with various costs associated with time, sometimes resulting in a huge financial debt in the end. To accomplish the purpose, an analysis model based on the theory of system dynamics was constructed utilizing Vensim program and simulation was performed with actual project cost data. The target area is LU1 urban development project in Incheon city. The risk factors considered in the development process were purchasing cost by legal force, size of commercial area in planning, and change of urban land price, etc. The risks are closely integrated in the development process and the connection was included in the model. Various scenarios were developed and tested for the fine results of financial feasibility. The empirical findings from the system dynamics enabled us to suggest a variety of information on the decision-making for the development. They include how high the cost of land expropriation is, what the effect of the unusally large commercial area is, how large and what the actual size of the commercial area is, etc. We believe this system dynamics model provides an opportunity to test fine scenarios for the better financial feasibility in the future.