아파트시장의 지역별 단기수요예측에 관한 연구 -수도권과 5대 광역시를 중심으로-

Abstract

The aim of this study is to attempt a short-term demand forecast within 1 year and to be reflected on the impacts of the market situation changed on a monthly basis on in quantity apartment demanded as distinguished from the model for medium and long term housing demand forecasting including M-W model. The relation between interest rate, apartment trading volume, sale value volatility in capital area and big 5 metropolitan cities and the sales volume in new apartments establishing the VAR model was analyzed. As a result of the actual analysis, it was judged that interest rate, apartment trading volume and sale value volatility have effect on an estimated sales volume in new apartment. The short-term quantity demanded for each area was predicted by the result value and the apartment supply and the estimated demand volume in new apartment were compared and analyzed. Based on the result of this study, the future short-term quantity demanded will be predicted and it will be used when establishing the short-term supply plan fit for regional characteristic